Crisis? What Crisis!?

The stuttering of the furnace, well pump, and digital clock woke me up around 5 am this morning. Power flickered a few more times, then ceased into a near-total darkness. The sudden stillness within our house brought the outside sounds to the fore. Wind. I could not hear the wind so much as the straining and rustle of the fir and cedar trees outside. I climbed out of bed and grabbed the one of the flashlights we keep handy for just such an occasion. The dogs eyed me with optimism initially, but sank their heads back down to the floor as I passed by heading towards the front door. I stepped outside into the chill wind and light rain to survey the area; looking to see how wide this outage might be. The entire area was dark; no street or houselights on between us and the mountains to the east. Looking back over the house to the west showed a comforting glow of the town of Arlington four miles away, reflecting off the low heavy clouds. Even brighter glows emanated to the south and southwest (Marysville & Everett respectively.) From this data my evolved mammalian brain ascertained the outage was very local, and confined to between Arlington and the mountains of the Boulder River Wilderness. This meant that it was likely to be very brief, unlike previous extended outages that covered the region. Such is life living in the Cascade Foothills. I climbed back in bed and told Sue that power was out. In our home this means no showers, so we just stayed in bed past our usual waking time. Nick, without his alarm stayed asleep in his room.

After a bit I wandered out to the kitchen, and Sue fed the dogs. I stood at the window and admired the darkness. At this latitude the sun rises late (around 8 AM) and low this time of year, and never flies very high above the southern horizon. Clouds obscure it most of the time anyway. The only light visible at all was that glowing reflection of other towns on the underside of the overcast. That odd light and swaying conifers gave the atmosphere a very odd look. Very dark. Very mysterious. My mind wandered back to time without electricity when the world was lit only by fire, and how, absent that far away glow, absolutely DARK it would be right here, right now.

Every little thing I wanted to do, take a shower, make breakfast, read the newspaper the normal routine of a normal morning… all dependent upon electricity. Instead I grabbed a handful of nuts and a glass of water from a pitcher, and stared out the window in thought.

I thought about perspective and how we, as highly evolved humans, fail to recognize reality. Despite our opposable thumbs and big brains, we tend to overreact like frightened chimps to things which are quite harmless. Among the headlines I could make out of the murky twilight cast on the kitchen table was yet another mention of the “Economic Crisis” we supposedly find ourselves in. “Bullshit” I thought. This is anything but a true crisis. In a crisis we’d be eating the dogs and burning our furniture to keep warm. Things we take for granted, such as electricity and the availability of the pistachios I’m eating right now would be unimaginable and exotic luxuries. Our society has grown so damn secure and comfortable that we now have to manufacture problems.
We create artificial controversies (which are in reality side-shows) for television pundits to endlessly rehash.
We imagine catastrophes (which are in reality minor stumbles) for political parties to use to point fingers of blame at one another.
We conjure up legions of plotting enemies (when they are in reality numbered in the dozens) that frighten us into discarding our most cherished values.

This is NOT an “economic crisis” at all. Nor is it the failure, and especially not the “end” of Capitalism. What we find ourselves in right now is the inevitable mild down cycle, which naturally occurs as part of a healthy market. Market cycles go up, and they go down, performing corrections when things in any particular sector get out of… the invisible hand, as it were. Down cycles always cause human beings to panic, thinking that things are somehow really bad. Well, I’ve got news for you folks, this kind of thing happens all the time, over and over again throughout history, though the history books only focus on one of them. In reality we’ve been in this down cycle for almost ten years. Corrections have jumped from sector to sector, and recovery very slow, but overall if you look back at 2000—2009 the economy has been flat as Kansas compared to the crazy days of 1990—1999. So can we drop the hyperbole and focus on reality: Things right now are not that bad, and in fact they are pretty damn good. I’d wager that it the larger scheme of things, it is the best time ever to be alive. Sure, I’d love it if my stock portfolio were partying like it was 1999, but on the upside we’re not burning useless banknotes for warmth or eating our pets. In the latter cases you can be forgiven for calling it a crisis, but the word is not justifiable to use for today’s situation. Other terms off the table: “meltdown”, “free-fall” and “disaster.” Why? Because none of them are actually happening. Unless you live in Haiti of course.

If anything console yourself with this oddly comforting fact: We live at the only time in all of human history where things are so good, and living is so easy, that even poor people are fat.

So next time somebody on TV or radio utters the “C” word, turn it off.
Next time the phrase “Economic Crisis” comes up in conversation, reply with the question “Have you eaten your pets?”
Next time you think things are really tough, flip your home’s main breaker and sit in the dark for a while.

Sense of perspective will return.

Let’s go for a ride!

From the YouTube page description:

The Known Universe takes viewers from the Himalayas through our atmosphere and the inky black of space to the afterglow of the Big Bang. Every star, planet, and quasar seen in the film is possible because of the world’s most complete four-dimensional map of the universe, the Digital Universe Atlas that is maintained and updated by astrophysicists at the American Museum of Natural History. The new film, created by the Museum, is part of an exhibition, Visions of the Cosmos: From the Milky Ocean to an Evolving Universe, at the Rubin Museum of Art in Manhattan through May 2010.

I love visualizations like this. Thinking at scales like this is very hard for the human brain to do. Seeing it helps, but the timescales involved in traveling this distance overwhelm even my fairly open mind.

Hat tip to Tom Negrino via twitter.

Crappy Morning…

As I drifted off to sleep last night, I heard the hum of the well pump in the basement of our house. It usually runs when anyone uses water… the diswasher, a shower, toilet, etc. I didn’t think much of it as we had a full house – Christopher came home from college last night. Around 5:00 am I sort of half-awoke, and the pump sound was still there. My brain sort of skipped a beat and then I jolted fully awake. I knew that a pipe somewhere was broken. Things had just thawed completely from the recent big freeze. We’d had snow all Saturday night, into and through Sunday. This after two+ weeks of sub-freezing weather. So I throw some clothes on and grab a flashlight to go check that indeed the pump is running (it is) and then start searching for the break.

I really love this house, but it is obvious that it has an Achilles Heel in the form of its water system and plumbing. I actually PREPARED for this freeze. I shut off the water to the barn, and drained its pipes. I even shut off the valve I installed to protect the last pipe that burst in a big freeze. I found the leak, and thankfully was able to fix it easily.

Since Chris is home, and would like to have a car to drive, and I have some bulky items in my office to bring home, along with a waste-oil run to Snohomish, I left the Jetta for Chris and drove the truck. We rarely drive this truck. Sue bought it a decade ago to haul horses, but now the horse trailer is gone, and most of the horses are gone, and the sole remaining one lives elsewhere. The truck has been kept for runs to the dump, the hardware store, etc. and of course situations like today. So I’m driving down I-5 to work and I note an (obvious) unmarked police car following me for a long ways. I’m in the right lane, and have the cruise set at 55, even though the limit is 60. I don’t like to drive this truck, and never feel safe going fast in it as it always feels top-heavy and dangerous. After several miles the cop flips on his lights and I pull over onto the shoulder. He tells me my tabs have expired… in March(!)
WTF?
How did I let THAT happen? Usually the DOL sends out renewal notices and I renew them online within days. I never forget to do this… how did I not notice? The truck gets driven maybe 10 times a year, and usually only a few miles. But still… I’m usually not that unaware of things.

The cop takes my lic, reg, insurance, etc and goes back to his car. When he comes back he says “I’m not trying to be a jerk but… ” Sure enough he hands me a citation. Grrr. He explains how I can deal with it in court, but all I’m thinking is “What a jerk.” Now I know I can have Sue take care of all this, as she is an “officer of the court”… but I also know she’s going to be all ticked off at me for:
1. Forgetting to renew the tabs.
And
2. Getting a ticket.

Revenue collection device.

I take the citation from the Sheriff, and drive off to work in a bad mood. I renewed my tabs online as soon as I arrived at the office, but my mood hasn’t improved any.

787 First Flight

I am privileged to have witnessed first-hand today a historic moment. Mind you it is a small one in the big scheme of things, but I had the chance to see it, and now I’m sharing it with you.

My office is very close to Boeing Field, and my window is host to all manner of interesting aircraft, as you have seen occasionally. The flight path of Sea-Tac is also behind our building, so there is always something flying by. Today though, was a historic day as something special was set to fly by. Boeing’s new passenger jet, the 787 “Dreamliner” took flight for the first time. I watched it take off from Paine Field in Everett live on the Internet and set my phone’s alarm to remind me to be ready to photograph it 5 hours later when it arrived at Boeing Field a bit before sundown.

The winds were from the south which meant it would land towards my window, not across it. I was preparing to make a run to the post office to mail a few things when Kevin, our Facilities Manager and Civil Air Patrol member informed me that the flight was now scheduled to land much earlier. As I grabbed my camera my phone rang and my friend John, who works on the 787 project at Boeing let me know exactly when it would touch down: 1:22 PM. This meant I had about 12 minutes to go find a spot near the runway to catch it. If it had been a clear day with wind to the north I would have gone to the south end of the runway and been right underneath it as it landed. It was coming from the north though and 12 minutes would be not long enough to get to the far side of the airport and found a spot to park, so I gave up on getting really close shots and drove as fast as I dared to the Museum of Flight, which has a good view of the runway and a large parking lot. Of course EVERY light between my office and the Museum was RED.

I arrived with about 3 minutes to spare, with a large crowd already gathering. I lucked into a parking spot and walked around trying to find a good spot for photos. The air was thick with cold rain (the weather was what cut the first flight short), hovering news helicopters and a pervasive sense of anticipation.

News choppers overhead, people wait for the 787's arrival under the warm friendly umbrella of a retired B-47 Stratojet Strategic Nuclear Bomber.

That white speck under the bomber's nose is the 787's lights as it emerged from the heavy overcast above Seattle.

Zoomed as far as my lens will go. The 787 & chase planes approach out of the gloomy sky. Note the upswept wings.

getting closer.

Just after touchdown. You can see the flexible wings have let down.

The landing was essentially perfect. The plane was smooth and undramatic. By this point it was pretty much taxiing.

Once the landing roll was done and the Dreamliner was essentially just parading, the chase planes flew over.

Does anyone other than me find it ironic that the chase planes for the world's newest jetliner are:…

… a Lockheed design dating from the 1940s?

taxiing down past the Museum of Flight.

The IMAX chopper does a low flyby around the nose as the 787 comes to the turn-around point.

The crowd waves, and the pilot waves back.

A closer look at the Rolls-Royce engine. Interesting cowl shape.

As the 787 heads toward the testing center at the north end of the field, everyone takes a last look at her before heading back to work and out of the rain.


You can see all of my photos, as they were dumped out of my camera, here.

TSA = (*Theatre) Security (*) Administration.

If there was any doubt that TSA is nothing more than security theatre, I present to these two links:

“Do I have the right to refuse this search?” – Interesting reading from somebody who is a trained law enforcement professional.

And…

Redacted.” – A post by c.g.o reader David Traver Adolphus, where he links to a file that the TSA posted for the public, with black boxes covering the redacted text. However by selecting the text and capy/pasting it elsewhere it becomes readable!

These are the people who are supposed to protect us from terrorists? George Carlin was right.

A (really loud) blast from the past: Some CanAm footage

When I was a little kid growing up in northern Illinois, my dad brought me up to Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin a few times to see the Canadian-American Challenge Cup (CanAm) races at Road America. I can not recall which years we attended, and I’m sure it was later in the 60s than the event shown above, which was the series’ first season… but I do have a few vivid memories of the events themselves, notably:

  • The fact that you felt these cars go by more than you saw or heard them.
  • I can recall huge straw bales being used as “safety barriers” around the outside of the course.
  • Jim Hall’s Chaparrals were my favorites. Not only was the big wing really cool (and these videos show well how it worked, or didn’t as the case may be) but it also made his cars easy to spot for my then small size.
  • The big orange McLaren cars always won. My beloved Chaparrals were always the bridesmaid.
  • Most of all, it was really cool to spend time with my Dad, doing something he really enjoyed doing.

We also attended other races in the region, notably some open-wheel events such as Indianapolis (just qualifying, not the actual event) and another oval-track race in Wisconsin which I can’t recall the name of right now. But it was always the sports car races such as CanAm that I liked the best. Realizing now that in many ways this was a pivotal time in racing history, I recognize that I am privileged to have witnessed it first-hand, even as a small child.

The list of names involved in this particular race in Las Vegas reads like a “who’s who” of legendary drivers.

A little digging on YouTube turned up an event from ’67 that took place at Road America:

I may have been there, so keep your eyes peeled for a little blond kid on his dad’s shoulders! 😉