Category: Thoughts

Just thinking out loud you know…

Robert McNamara and Lessons (un)Learned

While it was hard to catch in the never ending stream of supposed “news” coverage of some dead singing weirdo, one of the 20th century’s most important figures died this week: Robert S. McNamara. Best known as Kennedy & LBJ’s Secretary of Defense, essentially the man responsible for the US’ involvement in the Vietnam war, McNamara was also an executive at the Ford Motor Company. At Ford he is credited with the Falcon, and therefore virtually all of Ford’s subsequent small cars. McNamara also served in the USAAF in WW2, as well as a stint at the World Bank, seemingly the traditional home of disgraced members of the Executive branch.

To me he was always portrayed as a villian in history, both in the White House and at Ford. My eyes were opened to a new perspective when I viewed the Oscar-winning documentary “The Fog of War” a few years ago. It is literally a conversation with the man himself, and in it he reveals and reviews his errors, and draws lessons from them. It is truly wisdom passed on from an elder, and digestion of it should be required for anyone who find themselves in a position of leadership. McNamara breaks down his experience into eleven life lessons:

R.S. McNamara’s eleven life lessons
1. Empathize with your enemy
2. Rationality will not save us
3. There’s something beyond one’s self
4. Maximize efficiency
5. Proportionality should be a guideline in war
6. Get the data
7. Belief and seeing are often both wrong
8. Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning
9. In order to do good, you may have to engage in evil
10. Never say never
11. You can’t change human nature

These lessons were foremost in his mind as not long before the documentary was made, McNamara wrote a book which applied many of these lessons unlearned had failed us in Vietnam:

Eleven lessons from the Vietnam War

1. We misjudged then — and we have since — the geopolitical intentions of our adversaries … and we exaggerated the dangers to the United States of their actions.
2. We viewed the people and leaders of South Vietnam in terms of our own experience … We totally misjudged the political forces within the country.
3. We underestimated the power of nationalism to motivate a people to fight and die for their beliefs and values.
4. Our judgments of friend and foe, alike, reflected our profound ignorance of the history, culture, and politics of the people in the area, and the personalities and habits of their leaders.
5. We failed then — and have since — to recognize the limitations of modern, high-technology military equipment, forces, and doctrine.
6. We failed, as well, to adapt our military tactics to the task of winning the hearts and minds of people from a totally different culture.
7. We failed to draw Congress and the American people into a full and frank discussion and debate of the pros and cons of a large-scale military involvement … before we initiated the action.
8. After the action got under way, and unanticipated events forced us off our planned course … we did not fully explain what was happening, and why we were doing what we did.
9. We did not recognize that neither our people nor our leaders are omniscient. Our judgement of what is in another people’s or country’s best interest should be put to the test of open discussion in international forums. We do not have the God-given right to shape every nation in our image or as we choose.
10. We did not hold to the principle that U.S. military action … should be carried out only in conjunction with multinational forces supported fully (and not merely cosmetically) by the international community.
11. We failed to recognize that in international affairs, as in other aspects of life, there may be problems for which there are no immediate solutions … At times, we may have to live with an imperfect, untidy world.
Underlying many of these errors lay our failure to organize the top echelons of the executive branch to deal effectively with the extraordinarily complex range of political and military issues.

In reality these lessons do not really limit themselves to the conflict in southeast Asia in the 1960s ad 1970s, in fact they apply to virtually any conflict between nation-states. Substitute the word ‘Iraq’ into any of these lessons and you will find that they apply. It is a shame that this level of review was not considered in 2002/2003. The human and monetary capital saved would have been astounding.

Isn’t the life and lessons of this man far more important to our country than a dead drug-addled, gender/race-confused, singing-dancing, whack-job? Why is the media so obsessed with the latter, and ignoring the former? Do any of you wonder why I don’t watch television anymore? If so your answer is found in this situation.

Instead of watching the 24hr news cycle’s circle jerk over “MJ”, pull up a chair and watch The Fog of War right here. (Or go rent the DVD if image quality and sync issues drive you crazy.) There are many, many moments within it that are profoundly thought-provoking – such as at the 42 minute mark. The depth and impact of these words about and on humanity truly put the meaninglessness of the gloved one in perspective.

Your brain will thank you for it.

Enderle Idiocy, Schneier Wisdom: “Terrorist Risk of Cloud Computing”

Schneier on Security: Terrorist Risk of Cloud Computing.

Bruce Schneier gets it COMPLETELY right, (about Rob Enderle being completely wrong,) when he says:

“…the main point of the article, which seems to imply that terrorists will someday decide that disrupting people’s Lands’ End purchases will be more attractive than killing them. Okay, that was a caricature of the article, but not by much. Terrorism is an attack against our minds, using random death and destruction as a tactic to cause terror in everyone. To even suggest that data disruption would cause more terror than nuclear fallout completely misunderstands terrorism and terrorists.”

There is a common logical error people make when trying to asses risk: planning without thinking. Making invalid assumptions without proper analysis. Nowhere is this as obvious as when people discuss protecting things from terrorist attack. Terrorism ignites all manner of fear in people, even without the “terrorists” having to actually DO anything. Fear is indeed the mind-killer here as people toss away all logic and let their imaginations run wild, conjuring up all manner of fearful outcomes. They literately lose their minds and lose the ability to think clearly.

Of course Rob Endlerle is a proven idiot and is obviously incapable of thinking. He merely lobs grenades and trolls for flames wherever he writes, always constructing bizarro arguments on assumptions and fallacies. Schneier rightly points out one of these fallacies when he scoffs at Enderle’s statement: “The Twin Towers, which were destroyed in the 9/11 attack, took down a major portion of the U.S. infrastructure at the same time.” The U.S.A.’s infrastructure suffered virtually zero damage on 9/11. In the grand scheme of things the 9/11 attack was less than a pinprick in our national skin. The air transport system was back to normal within a week. The stock exchange was trading again in a few days. More people die falling off ladders each year in the USA than those killed on 9/11/2001.

The point of terrorism is found right there within its name: terror. Shock. Outrage. Fear. Paralysis. Over-reaction. That is what terrorists want. Their aim is to provoke maximal emotional reaction with minimal effort. Therefore terrorists attack specific targets chosen for maximum shock and outrage. They attack symbols. They attack people. They seek to have visibility. They don’t attack infrastructure. In the case of 9/11 infrastructure was the weapon, not the target.

Nation-States engaged in warfare attack infrastructure. The fastest way to disable an enemy is to destroy their means of communications, transportation, and manufacture. This is how warfare has been conducted since the mid-20th century. Technology allowed the expansion of the battlefield into entire continental “theaters of war” and technology allowed warring nations to attack each others’ technology. This is the natural evolution of conflict that began when our ancestors first beat each other with rocks.

The error that Enderle, and so many others make is mistaking terrorism for warfare. Terrorism is NOT warfare. The purpose of attacking infrastructure is to weaken the opponent so as to make warfare easier. The destruction of infrastructure allows the next logical step in warfare: the attacker destroying their enemy and/or invading their enemies territory. Terrorists are not interested in those steps. They are not seeking to invade or destroy. They merely want to inflict maximum emotional damage at minimal cost. Osama bin Laden spent very little money to execute the 9/11 attacks. Sure, it may have been over a million dollars but it provoked a trillion+ dollar response. THAT is the point of terrorism.

Datacenters, Telecommunications Infrastructure, Carrier Hotels, Long-Haul Fiber-Optic Circuits, and by extension, “Cloud Computing” will never be terrorism targets. Ever. They have no emotional value. Their disablement or even destruction provokes no visceral emotional reaction or outrage (except in the people like myself who must build and maintain them of course!) Ask yourself this: If the 9/11 hijackers flew those planes into One Wilshire, The Westin Building, and the Google Datacenter in The Dalles, Oregon would we be fighting wars in two middle-eastern countries today? The answer is: “No.” In fact it may not have even been seen as a terrorist act at first, instead being seen as a random set of accidents. It would not have been seen live on TV around the world, and people would not have even been affected much technically and certainly not emotionally. Today it would be one of those dimly recalled events of yesteryear. “Oh, remember when those plane crashes made the Internet slow for a few hours?”

Dick Dale: The Effortlessness of Mastery

Dick Dale

When I was an on-ice official (Referee & Linesman) in hockey, we were always told that you have achieved perfection when you can work a game unnoticed. That is, when your craft and skills meet with experience and confidence, your mastery will make your effort appear effortless. Mastery in art and craft is something that truly requires a lifetime to gain. Old dogs don’t learn new tricks, they just become so good at old ones that they are no longer tricks, they are art.

I consider myself lucky, and privileged when I can experience the mastery of those who have worked that lifetime. I saw and heard Dick Dale tonight at the Triple Door in Seattle. I discovered Dick Dale’s music a long time ago, when I was living overseas and frankly found the music they played on the radio ranged from disappointing to awful. It is an odd experience to be a stranger in a strange land, and you find yourself longing for things from home. In my first months there I was alone and consoled myself on weekends by watching American movies, if only to just relax and not have to listen so hard while parsing dialects and accents. Seeing movies from home was like letting my brain rest. A movie I watched had a Dick Dale tune and it sparked in me the desire to explore uniquely American musical genres. I fell in love with “surf rock” and it became a staple in my personal playlists. Not long after my return to the USA, I flew to Southern California to see and hear the man himself play. It was at the “Route 66 Reunion” in San Bernadino, and he played outdoors amidst a giant car show on a warm autumn evening. His son Jimmy, then a young boy, played with him for a few songs. I chatted with him after the show and he signed the shirt I was wearing for me. The whole trip is a fond memory for me.

Above: Dick & Jimmy Dale play together that night nearly a decade ago.

Since then I’ve tried to see him again, but for one reason or another I was always out of town when he visited Seattle, Bellingham, or Vancouver, BC, the large cities close to my home. I’d check his website for tour dates faithfully and inevitably be in another state when he came through here (which by the way is why I flew to SoCal to see him last time!) When checking his site last year I was taken aback to see that Dick had been stricken with cancer and had stopped touring. Being a tough old guy he beat it, and is (amazingly!) back on tour again. I sprung for some tickets and invited friends to come along and see him.

Dick Dale's performs tonight

I’m so glad I went.

Dick Dale has been performing for longer than I have been alive. He is 72 years old and can rock like few others. Most importantly he has truly mastered his craft. His playing is so effortless that it is a joy to behold. He has no set list, he just plays what he wants, moving from one song to another based on whim. His two band mates literally follow him, their eyes glued to his figure, moving along as Dale drifts off of notes and chords from one song to another. The sounds that come from his guitar are beautiful cascades of, as he so succinctly put it, pain and pleasure – flowing as naturally, and relentlessly, as water down a mountainside, or waves upon a beach.

Riders in the Sky, The Wedge, Esperanza, Ring of Fire, Let’s Go Trippin’, In-liner, Miserlou, and Third Rock from the Sun.

After the show, I chatted briefly with him again, as I had all those years ago. I wore the same shirt, and had him refresh the now faded autograph. I handed him one of my personal cards, with a photo of the 65E on it and he mentioned that he owns one as well: a red ’68.

Small world, and better for having such artists in it.

A milestone reached: A MegaChuck of output!

Above: A peek behind the scenes...

Back in September of 2005, right after I came back from the Colorado Grand, I switched from building all my webpages by hand to running WordPress. Prior to that I had written all the HTML code one character at a time in Rich Siegel’s wonderful BBEdit and dropped them on my server (a shockingly underpowered machine!) located at digital.forest’s datacenter. It was honestly a huge pain in the ass, and I rarely updated the site because of this. Updates usually only happened in the midst of some important event, such as driving from NYC to LA with a bunch of other old cars, or a wonderful road trip with Nicholas as we brought the Jaguar home for the first time. I’d been using the “MoveableType” content management system (aka “blogging platform”) at work for our support website, so already had an idea of what I wanted. WP looked to be the one to use, so I set it up on one of the web severs at the office and started putting in content. Along the way I’ve picked up a nice group of folks to chat with… several hundred of you actually. Some knew me before I started, quite a few have found this place since. A lot of you have hung around and really participated. Thanks!

I noted today that I’ve reached something of a milestone with this post: the 1,024th one since I started using WP to publish my photos, thoughts, confessions, news, and occasional maniacal rants. One thousand and twenty four. That’s a magic number for us geeks at it is the nearest we get to counting to one thousand, though it only takes us twelve numbers to get there. I figured I’d celebrate the milestone by sharing a few thoughts I’ve had about what I do here. Just as I said from the outset, I’m not looking to be a well-known pundit, or a vaunted member of the “blogosphere” … I just want to develop and present good stuff that rattles around in my head and eyes. In random order, here are some thoughts:

  • Re-running old rally stories. The idea here is to repost some of my old (pre-blog, so 1998-2005) vintage rally stories, but this time with the ability to flesh out the tale a bit more. Often these were written in a summary style, late at night after a hard day’s driving, followed by dinner (with drinks!), lots of photo editing and uploading from dodgy hotel Internet connections, and written while my rally partner was snoring in the other bed. I’d re-write them and post them in a daily order.
  • Interviews with other “car guys.” I’d love to develop a series along this line of thought: Talk to people who self-identify as “car guys” (no matter their gender) and find the common threads as well as the differences. Get their stories, histories, etc. The origins of their love for the automobile, the cars that got away, etc. I already know so many people I could talk to… literally around the world.
  • Some more of the same. The tried and true: Rally & Road Trip stories in Real Time. Car Photo of the Day. Engine pR0n.
  • Some Whimsy in the Mix A bit of story telling. A sprinkle of time lapse photography (I think I can get uber-HD time lapse stuff from my new DSLR!) More antique computer stuff if I can find the time.
  • A new WP theme.That is, a change in the layout of the site. The content will remain, but the look will change. I always meant to move off the default “WP Classic” theme, as it is… dull. I never got around to it. I actually have another site where I’ve played with WP themes (don’t bother looking for that site… it is very anonymous and has nothing to do with me. It is just a place where I practice writing for writing’s sake) I think I’ve got a look worked out and if I can find the time I’ll implement it here. If you are some sort of Luddite and actually LIKE the way this site looks currently, let me know. 😉
  • Some behind the scenes stuff. This is mostly server-related. Most of my photos are still hosted and served from my shockingly underpowered machine (seriously, it is a 266MHz G3!) while the WP site runs from a d.f FreeBSD shared hosting box, and the database is running on yet another d.f shared hosting server. I plan to collapse all those back down to a single machine… this time only mildly underpowered. Having the db and the http on the same box will let me do a few whizzy back-end things. No change for you, except maybe it will be a tad faster.

Feel free to comment and let me know what you think.

Car Photo of the Day: This car is DRIVEN.

You didn't know the Jaguar diet includes insects?

There is something of a hulabaloo going on within the JCNA (Jaguar Clubs of North America) at the moment, concerning the “Driven” class within the Concours competition. The crux of it is a ruling whereby cars in the “Driven” class are now allowed to be trailered to the competitions. To some people, including your author, this is ludicrous.

JCNA Concours are judged on “originality” and “authenticity”, meaning that as presented a car should be as close to the condition it left the factory at Brown’s Lane, Coventry all those years ago. To win at a concours requires a lot of effort, in preservation, and in restoration (if required.) This is a bit different than the more general and widely known “Concours d’Elegance” competitions such as Pebble Beach and Amelia Island, where subjective issues of beauty, rarity, historical significance, and provenance are thrown into the mix. Theoretically the JCNA style event is objective, where a judge compares a guide (canonical data compiled by JCNA concerning the models) to the physical car, and deducts points for parts judged not original, or not authentic. They have three classes: Championship. Preservation, and Driven. Championship class cars are frequently almost flawless, and are usually freshly restored, or are “trailer queens”… that is they are never driven on public roads if it can be avoided, and often are only driven on and off trailers. They are truly “show cars”. The Preservation class is for older cars who are original, but have gathered that wonderful aging we call “patina” in the car world. The ‘Driven’ class was created for people who actually drive their cars. The point scale is more generous, ignoring things like dings in the paint, and not judging the engine bay or boot of the vehicles. Overall originality is important, but “drive-ability” and “comfort” modifications are allowed, such as contemporary tire sizes and CD players.

To those of us who DRIVE our cars the Concours field is looked at with opinions that range from mild amusement to derision. Terms like “Competitive Car Washing”, “Concours d’Arrogance”, and ‘The Q-tip Brigade” frequently come up. When you drive a car, as it is meant to be driven, it collects dirt, bugs, replacement parts, and often modifications for the sake of driving pleasure, reliability, or economy. My car could NEVER win any JCNA Concours in the Championship or Preservation classes. It is not original, nor is it authentic. I could enter it in the Driven class, but it could never win. It is just not possible. The standards of “originality” and “authenticity” are kind of like the central plot point in that old 80s fantasy flick “Highlander“… there can be only one. So long as your car has even JUST one thing “wrong” with it, you WILL lose.

By allowing “trailer queens” to compete in driven, honest to goodness driven cars will only be driven from the Concours field. It will become merely the second-tier of the Championship class, where older trailer queens go when they can’t compete anymore. The truth here is that a Concours is a competition. Sure, there’s all sorts of joy to be had by hanging out with car guys all day and shooting the breeze… but at the end of the day one car wins and the others don’t. That is the difference between a “show & shine” and a Concours, JCNA or otherwise. If they are going to award a prize at the end of the day then driven has to mean driven. Otherwise it is just a farce.

I love the JCNA Slalom, and literally maintain my membership for that reason only. If they’d have TSD rallies in my region I’d do those too. But if you sever see my car on a JCNA Concours field then you will know I’m dead – the Concours rules as they stand today, are just patently absurd.

I love the history, beauty, and refined rawness that is the Jaguar E-type. It is truly a snapshot of all that was possible in 1961. It is however a machine with utility in mind. Like the horse it replaced, the automobile is a beautiful beast of burden. Just as the horse is meant to be seen at full gallop across a field of grass, a car is meant to be seen roaring over asphalt. To trailer a car to a Concours is akin to having a stuffed horse on display. It is an insult to the viewer, and a mortal injury to the horse.

Car Photo of the Day: Surprised?

Raindrops on a TT

I really like the Audi TT. I know it is just a souped-up VW New Beetle, which is really just a VW Golf with a goofy body. The TT appeals to me because it is such a “F**K Off” vehicle. Unlike Porsche, or even GM, who has to produce a car that fits within a narrow set of parameters which only their “core customers” define, Audi was able to take a small car platform, and adapt it to a unique little car, specific to their brand, that clearly appeals to an automotive enthusiast.

Audi has occasionally talked of doing what I think is my dream car: A TDI-powered TT. Audi developed the TDI into a Le Mans winning technology, so it only makes sense to offer it as an option in their product line, especially in a sports car like the TT. I’d love to commute to my job in an open-topped 2-seater sports car, powered by my own home-brewed fuel… “smelling the french fries” as it were. The torquey little 1.9L TDI, even at 90HP is good enough to motivate the little roadster. I don’t need to have 300HP to race from light to light! 50 MPG is reward in an of itself. The original roadsters, images of which often grace these pages, that is little British cars from the 50s and 60s, were rarely considered “overpowered” in fact quite the opposite. Tiny A-series engines of diminutive displacement provided plenty of smiles per mile back then, I don’t see why those days are not worth reliving, this time with Diesel.

This particular Audi TT was photographed on the 2007 Classic Motorcar Rally, which includes a division for “Contemporary” (that is post 1976) cars. It draws machines such as this Audi, many BMWs, Mistubishis, etc. If you love TSD rallying, then there’s no excuse not to join us, as any car will do. It is a fun group, with great meals, great people, tours of classic car collections, awesome roads, and lots of fun. This year the event will take place on Vancouver Island in late June. It’s not too late to sign up! Head on over to their website and check it out: The Classic Motorcar Rally.

E-type 2+2 roofline lowering examples.

The Series 1 Jaguar E-type 2+2

On the Jag-Lover’s lists/forums a discussion arises often about the odd car out of the E-type sphere, namely the 2+2. Introduced in 1966, it offered a back seat to a previously 2-seat-only car. The wheelbase was lengthened and the coupe’s top was sort of bowed upward and extended rearward. This enabled the option of an automatic transmission in the long wheelbase cars. Initially everything else remained the same; bumpers, windscreen, etc. A bit over a year later, Jaguar changed the windshield with a more raked back angle, and eventually with the Series 3 V-12 cars made it wider as well. The convertible V-12s were all based on this longer wheelbase, and wider 2+2 basic design. The 2+2 was actually a huge sales success for Jaguar and sold in better numbers in its day, but today is considered by the market to be of lesser value than the OTS & FHC. Given this position in the market the 2+2 has become sort of the canvas by which people play “what if”… many have been converted to convertibles for example. The other variation often thought of is a “chopped” roof. Many believe the bulbous roofline combined with the steep Series 1 windscreen makes for a funny beluga whale profile and wonder if Jaguar would have been better off with a lower roofline.

I grabbed a photo of an early (1966) 2+2 and ran it through Photoshop, bending and warping pixels in two ways to create a “what if” study for a few guys in the Jag-Lovers “pub” who wanted to see what it might look like. The low angle of the photo makes for subtlety that is hard to grasp, but it is a start. I may try it again with a different photo, but lets have a look…

First I just lowered the roof across the board:

Lowered

Assuming that task might be too hard to actually achieve in sheet metal, I tried a sort of cut-n-shut method where the front was lowered more than the back, with a “pivot point” fairly low on the back deck to accommodate the glass and hatch:

pivoted

Whaddya think guys?

(Honestly as I have no skin in this game beyond the pixels above I have no opinion either way.)

Two more!

For this one, I basically flattened the back-seat’s “hump” in the roof, trying to replicate the lines of the FHC:

FHC-like

The guys on the J-L pub have been comparing the process to chopping a Mercury, so I had to go that way… really LOW:

Ferrari Daytona?

…and it sort of looks like a Ferrari Daytona to me!